It's that time of year again, when talking heads dominate the airwaves, weighing in with their "informed" views on who will win the Mercury.
You know the drill: someone from Music Week will confidently predict the judges will "go mainstream" this year (like they did with Arctic Monkeys in 2006); a spokesman for HMV will speculate that the kooky female nominee might get the nod (Bat For Lashes was tipped in 2007; this year it's Florence, who's the bookies' favourite at 3/1); and then someone will shrug and point out that, hey, M People won it one year, so who knows what will happen?
It's an entirely futile exercise, since no-one knows anything, except those secretive, mysterious ghouls on the judging panel, and they often change their minds on the night anyway.
None of which stops us from ranting legitimately about who deserves to win. Here's NME's own Emily Mackay arguing the case for Glasvegas.
And here's occasional NME scribe Alex Miller on The Horrors.
We'll be live-blogging and Tweeting from the event, which kicks off tomorrow night.
Who do you reckon should win?
Mercury Prize - The Odds